The results are in: No State of the Union polling bump for Biden — yet

It has been eleven days since Vice President Biden delivered his State of the Union speech, and the results of the first polls that have been performed since then have made it very evident that the president’s ratings have hardly changed. Following his speech on March 7, surveys were carried out by USA Today/Suffolk and The Economist/YouGov. The results of these surveys indicate that his approval rating is still in the mid 30s and low 40s.

The national polls continue to indicate that the general election showdown between Donald Trump and the anticipated Republican nominee is extremely close. According to The Economist and YouGov, the putative Republican nominee is either leading by a couple of points or Biden is narrowly leading (according to Reuters and Ipsos), and all of these results are within the margin of error.

Additionally, according to surveys conducted by Fox News and Quinnipiac University after Biden’s major address, Trump is currently in the lead in the battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, with the margin of error being within the margin of error.

Since the fall of last year, Biden’s political position and his numbers in a rematch versus Trump have not moved much, which is something that continues to stand out about both of these aspects of his campaign. Even after Trump won Iowa and New Hampshire in January, after both men secured the presidential nomination for their respective parties, and after Biden’s State of the Union, which was praised by Democrats and commentators, Trump continued to win.

None of this is to argue that the parameters of the contest for the presidency in 2024 won’t alter between now and November (they always can), nor is it to say that Biden can’t win with his present numbers (polls have found that Biden is overperforming among those who “somewhat” disapprove of the job he’s doing). Nevertheless, they highlight how little has changed in public perception of Biden and Trump, even after significant events such as the outcomes of the first primary and the State of the Union address.

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